Packwood’s Market Musings
Recent Packwood’s Market Musings
Packwood’s Market Musings (April 30, 2020)
Executive Summary Beginning in May and over the course of the next 18 months, I believe most social and economic activity will resume with some modifications. There is no doubt that COVID-19 is dangerous. A recent study has provided evidence that at least 0.14% of infected people die. If you assume all 330 million Americans…
Packwood’s Market Musings (April 22, 2020)
Packwood’s S&P 500 Probabilities Probability Distributions In the chart below, I express my future view of the S&P 500 as completely and transparently as possible with my forecasted probability of the S&P 500 Index reaching particular levels at different points in time (one-month, six-months, 2020 year-end, twelve-months, and 2021 year-end). Technically, these are probability density…
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